Luka Doncic needs more magic against Germany
Slovenia has, at least of the sides to make the knockout phase, been the most one-man team of EuroBasket 2025. Luka Doncic is their everything. Germany know they have depth beyond Franz Wagner and Dennis Schroder. Still, they can’t afford to underestimate the challenge on Wednesday, writes Emmet Ryan.
Slovenia have spammed Luka Doncic throughout EuroBasket 2025. Germany know they will again on Wednesday. For all the talent of Franz Wagner, Dennis Schroder, Daniel Theis, and more, they can’t afford a repeat of Saturday’s showing against Portugal.
Key details
What: Germany vs Slovenia, EuroBasket 2025 quarter final
Where: Xiaomi Arena, Riga, Latvia
When: 10 September 2025 at 21.00 (local), 19.00 (Ireland/UK), 14.00 (EST)
Odds: ML Germany 1/8 Slovenia 6/1. Spread Germany -12.5
EuroBasket’s John Wick
Luca Doncic is a man of focus, commitment, sheer will. He may have never killed three men in a bar with a pencil, but he has managed to single handedly carry Slovenia to the quarter finals of this competition despite a weak supporting cast. Klemen Prepelic is probably the only other player on this roster expected to perform at the level of a player that should see real floor time at this stage of the tournament.
He has also become a vocal leader. In the victory over Italy, when Saliou Niang was leading a ferocious comeback, it was Doncic who took charge in the timeout getting everyone to focus. Added to that are his wild stats of 34 points per game (1st in the tournament), 8.3 rebounds (10th), 7.2 assists (2nd), and 3.2 steals (1st).
Germany have leaned in extraordinarily to the concept of basketball being a team sport. Dennis Schroder (27.3) has their highest minutes average and is their only player in the top 30 of that stat. Franz Wagner is averaging 23.5, with Luka all the way out on 33.4. That puts Doncic third overall on minutes per game and highest amongst players still active in EuroBasket 2025. He is relentless.
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Germany had their fright
The biggest thing going against Luka Doncic and Slovenia is that it’s awfully unlikely Germany will be complacent for this game. They had their scare against Portugal and yet still won that by 27 points.
Neemias Queta showed that the heavy rotation Germany uses, with 8 players averaging over 15 minutes a game, isn’t invincible. Eventually the talent level of Franz Wagner, Dennis Schroder, and a supporting cast that features Tristan da Silva, Andreas Obst, and many more got the job done. Still, a game that was meant to be a walk was far from comfortable.
One thing to note is that Alan Ibrahimagic will be the main man on the sideline again. Having missed the group phase with illness, Alex Mumbru came back for the last 16 game. The physical strain however meant he has opted to step back. He’ll still be available but Ibrahimagic, who was in charge for the rest of their EuroBasket 2025 games, will see out the tournament with them.
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Prediction time
Germany didn’t cover against Portugal. Granted that’s not saying a lot given how high the number was. Still, it’s on my mind because I think they will win but the bookies continue to overestimate how comfortable they will be.
Slovenia will fight hard and defend much better than was expected pre-tournament. Luka Doncic might well go for a triple double or near the all-time scoring record. The problem is that he’ll need to just to keep this close.
When a Franz Wagner drive doesn’t work, Dennis Schroder is there to recycle. If he doesn’t like the look, he has Andreas Obst, Isaac Bonga, Daniel Theis, and both Oscar and Tristan da Silva to work with. There are just too many options here. Germany will find a way.
Pick:Germany to win but Slovenia to cover +10.5
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