The Chamber of Commerce estimates a 10.1% drop in Spanish exports to the US due to the 15% tariff
Madrid – The Chamber of Commerce of Spain has estimated that the entry into force of a generalized 15% tariff on U.S. imports from the European Union could lead to a 10.1% drop in Spanish exports to that country, which in monetary terms would mean a reduction of 1.841 billion euros from the total Spanish exports to the United States in 2024.
Given the possibility that negotiations between the United States and the EU may conclude with the entry into force of this tariff, the Chamber of Commerce of Spain has calculated the impact that this rate could have on Spanish exports to the North American country.
In doing so, the organization has continued the exercise carried out in April 2025, in which it evaluated the impact that the new U.S. trade policy based on a generalized increase in tariffs could have on Spanish exports to the United States.
“A priori, the direct impact would be limited. Total sales to the United States represented only 4.7% of the total Spanish exports in 2024, so it would be a contained effect. However, the impact could be relevant in sectors with greater exposure to the American market, such as capital goods, semi-manufactures, and some agri-food products,” pointed out the Chamber of Commerce of Spain.
Despite the forecast of a 10.1% decline in Spanish exports, the organization has indicated that the uncertainty associated with this estimate “advises considering confidence margins within which the final impact could be situated”.
In this case, according to the Chamber, the effect of setting a general tariff rate of 15% on Spanish exports to the United States “could range from a decrease of 7.2% to 13.1% (-1.307.3 and -2.375.3 million euros)”.
Capital goods, the most affected sector
Furthermore, the entity has pointed out that the impact will be “different” depending on the type of product, “depending on the average tariff currently applied, the value of exports of different goods, as well as the sensitivity of each exporting chapter to these changes”.
According to data from the Chamber of Commerce of Spain, the group of ‘food products and tobacco’, which until now faced an average tariff of 7.45%, would show a “moderate” impact. Specifically, an increase in tariffs to 15% could reduce their exports to the United States by 2.6%.
“This result constitutes an average of the entire group, so there may be specific products in this branch with greater sensitivity to tariff policy, such as olive oil or wine, as was already observed during the increase in tariffs recorded during the first term of the Trump Administration,” clarified the organization.
The Chamber of Commerce has highlighted that goods belonging to the group ‘machines, mechanical appliances, and electrical apparatus and material’ would be the “most sensitive” to an increase in tariffs on imports from Spain.
In this line, if the tariff on these types of products were raised to 15%, the decrease in their sales to the North American country would approach 16.2%.
Likewise, sales to the United States of ‘chemical and pharmaceutical products’ would also be “particularly sensitive” to the evolution of U.S. tariffs, as a 15% tariff could reduce exports of this class of goods by 9.6%.
On the other hand, ‘manufactures of stone, plaster, glass, and jewelry’, despite facing a higher tariff than in the case of the other chapters analyzed (1.76), except for food products, present “the least sensitivity” to changes in tariff rates, with an average reduction of sales to the U.S. of 1.1%. (July 28)
