Stripe Eyes PayPal: The Deal That Could Overtake Mastercard and Create a 3.7 Triilion Giant

The Irish-founded fintech, now valued at $159 billion, is weighing a deal for the struggling payments pioneer — a combination that would process $3.7 trillion in annual volume and reshape the competitive landscape from Wall Street to the EU’s Single Euro Payments Area.

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Stripe is in early discussions to acquire all or parts of PayPal Holdings, according to Bloomberg, in what would be the largest fintech deal in history. Stripe, founded by Irish brothers Patrick and John Collison and freshly valued at $159 billion following a tender offer, is considering either a full acquisition or selective purchase of PayPal assets including the Braintree merchant services unit and consumer wallet Venmo. PayPal’s market capitalisation stands at roughly $43 billion — an 88 per cent decline from its 2021 peak of $356 billion. A combined entity would process approximately $3.7 trillion in annual payment volume, serve more than 440 million consumer accounts and five million businesses, and command a larger share of global online payments than any platform outside the Visa and Mastercard card networks. Deliberations are early and may not lead to a transaction.

Why is Stripe interested in PayPal?

The logic is less about what PayPal is today and more about what it represents as raw material for an infrastructure company. PayPal peaked at $356 billion in market capitalisation in July 2021. It is now worth roughly $43 billion after years of slowing growth, management upheaval and intensifying competition from Apple Pay, Google Pay and a new generation of embedded finance tools. Two CEOs in three years could not reverse the decline. The board ousted Alex Chriss earlier this month and appointed HP’s Enrique Lores to take over on 1 March.

Stripe, by contrast, is accelerating. Its 2025 annual letter disclosed that businesses on its platform generated $1.9 trillion in total payment volume last year, up 34 per cent from 2024 — equivalent to roughly 1.6 per cent of global GDP. The company reported net revenue of $5.1 billion in 2025, remained profitable, and generated $2.2 billion in free cash flow. Its digital wallet Link now has more than 200 million users. Its revenue suite beyond payments is on track for a $1 billion annual run rate.

Patrick Collison acknowledged the dynamic in an interview this week. PayPal has had “a tough time over the past few years and the landscape has changed quite a bit with Apple Pay and Google Pay and everything like that,” the Stripe president said, declining to discuss any deal hypotheticals.

But the strategic rationale is clear. Stripe has built the most powerful payments infrastructure platform in the world. What it lacks is consumer scale. PayPal has 434 million active accounts and Venmo — a peer-to-peer brand with deep penetration among younger consumers — but has struggled to monetise either effectively. As we explored in our analysis of why strategic partnerships are set to reshape the payments industry, consolidation at this scale has been anticipated for some time.

What would the combined platform look like?

The numbers are formidable. Stripe processed $1.9 trillion in payment volume in 2025. PayPal processed $1.79 trillion. A combined entity would handle approximately $3.7 trillion in annual transactions — more than any payments platform in the world outside the Visa and Mastercard card networks themselves.

Visa currently leads the global payments technology market with a 19 per cent share. PayPal holds 15 per cent. Mastercard holds 11 per cent. Stripe and Apple Pay each hold 6 per cent. A Stripe–PayPal combination would immediately command roughly 21 per cent of global online payment technology usage — surpassing Visa in the digital commerce layer and dwarfing Mastercard.

The overlap between the two companies is structurally manageable. Stripe dominates developer-first infrastructure, API-driven integrations, and enterprise billing. PayPal dominates consumer checkout, peer-to-peer payments, and brand-driven trust at point of sale. As PYMNTS analysis noted, Stripe’s infrastructure could shape routing, authorisation and fraud decisions while PayPal’s wallet systems would handle authentication, funding choice and consumer behaviour. The combination of identity continuity and merchant optimisation would represent something no competitor currently offers.

There is also the stablecoin dimension. Stripe acquired blockchain infrastructure company Bridge for $1.1 billion in 2024 and is developing Tempo, a payments-focused blockchain being tested by Visa, Nubank and Shopify. PayPal launched its own dollar-backed stablecoin PYUSD in 2023 through Paxos, which has grown to a market value of approximately $4 billion. A merged entity would control two of the most significant stablecoin and blockchain-payments projects outside of centralised exchanges. As we reported in our coverage of the EU’s evolving financial rules, the regulatory framework around stablecoin payments is accelerating — and scale will matter.

What price is being discussed?

Bloomberg reported that Stripe is considering acquiring all or parts of PayPal’s business. PayPal’s current market capitalisation of roughly $43 billion represents a fraction of Stripe’s $159 billion private valuation. A full acquisition at a modest premium — say 25 to 40 per cent above current market price — would put the deal in the range of $54 billion to $60 billion, comfortably within the theoretical reach of a company generating $2.2 billion in annual free cash flow with access to the deepest pools of venture and growth capital in technology.

A partial acquisition may be more likely in the near term. Bloomberg specifically cited PayPal’s Braintree merchant services unit and Venmo as assets Stripe might target. Braintree processes payments for major platforms including Uber and Airbnb. Venmo has more than 90 million users and is one of the most recognised consumer finance brands in the United States. Either asset could be carved out without requiring the full regulatory scrutiny of a complete merger.

PayPal shares surged nearly 7 per cent on Tuesday on the Bloomberg report and rose a further 2.5 per cent on Wednesday, giving the company a market value north of $44 billion. The stock remains down more than 19 per cent year-to-date and roughly 80 per cent from its 2021 peak.

How wealthy would the Collison brothers become?

Patrick and John Collison, the Limerick-born brothers who founded Stripe in 2010 while still teenagers, each own approximately 10 per cent of the company. At Stripe’s current $159 billion valuation, that puts each brother’s stake at roughly $15.9 billion — making them Ireland’s wealthiest individuals by a considerable margin.

But a successful PayPal acquisition would likely push Stripe’s valuation significantly higher. If the combined entity were to pursue an IPO — as many analysts now expect in late 2026 or 2027 — the public market valuation of a platform processing $3.7 trillion in annual volume, with 440 million consumer accounts and dominant market share in online payments, could comfortably exceed $250 billion to $300 billion. At those levels, each Collison brother’s stake would be worth $25 billion to $30 billion, placing them among the 50 wealthiest people on the planet. Forbes currently estimates their combined worth at $20.2 billion. The Oxfam Ireland report published in January noted that the country’s 11 billionaires are collectively wealthier than 85 per cent of Irish adults.

For two brothers from Dromineer, a village in County Tipperary with a population under 200, the trajectory is without precedent in European technology.

What does this mean for European payments?

Europe would sit at the centre of the deal’s implications. Stripe was founded by Irish citizens, is headquartered in both San Francisco and Dublin, and processes payments in 46 countries. Its 2025 annual letter noted that more than half of new companies joining the platform last year were based outside the United States. PayPal operates in more than 200 countries and supports 25 currencies.

A combined entity would have the scale, regulatory footprint and infrastructure to become the dominant payment processor for European e-commerce — a market currently fragmented between national payment schemes, card networks and a patchwork of local providers. Stripe already supports SEPA Direct Debit, iDEAL, Bancontact, Klarna, Giropay and Sofort across Europe. PayPal adds brand recognition and consumer trust that no pure-infrastructure player can match.

The deal would also intersect with the EU’s digital finance agenda. The European Commission has been pushing for a unified payments framework under the revised Payment Services Directive (PSD3) and the proposed Payment Services Regulation. A Stripe–PayPal combination would immediately become the most significant private-sector counterparty in that regulatory process. As we examined in our analysis of Europe’s top corporate gateways, the cities competing for global capital flows would find a new variable in the competitive equation.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s digital euro project — designed in part to reduce European dependence on US-controlled payment networks — would face an even larger private-sector competitor if Stripe and PayPal merged. The strategic argument for a European sovereign digital payments layer would strengthen, even as the commercial case for matching the combined platform’s scale would become harder to make.

Deliberations are early. Regulatory hurdles would be significant. Antitrust scrutiny from both the US Department of Justice and the European Commission would be intense. But the signal is unmistakable: the era of fragmented digital payments is ending, and the next phase belongs to platforms that combine infrastructure, identity and global scale. Two brothers from rural Ireland may be the ones who build it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How big would a combined Stripe and PayPal platform be?

A combined Stripe–PayPal entity would process approximately $3.7 trillion in annual payment volume, serve more than 440 million consumer accounts and power payments for over five million businesses. This would make it the largest online payments platform in the world outside of the Visa and Mastercard card networks. In terms of global online payment technology market share, the combined platform would command roughly 21 per cent — surpassing Visa’s 19 per cent share in the digital commerce layer and far exceeding Mastercard’s 11 per cent.

How much could Stripe pay for PayPal?

PayPal’s current market capitalisation is approximately $43 billion. A full acquisition at a premium of 25 to 40 per cent would value the deal between $54 billion and $60 billion. However, Bloomberg has reported that Stripe may pursue a partial acquisition, targeting specific PayPal assets such as the Braintree merchant services unit or the consumer wallet Venmo rather than the entire company. Stripe is currently valued at $159 billion, is profitable, and generated $2.2 billion in free cash flow in 2025, giving it substantial financial capacity for a deal of this size.

What would a Stripe–PayPal deal mean for European payments?

Europe would be directly affected. Stripe was founded by Irish citizens, is co-headquartered in Dublin, and already supports major European payment methods including SEPA Direct Debit, iDEAL, Bancontact and Klarna. PayPal operates in over 200 countries with strong brand recognition among European consumers. A combined entity would become the dominant payment processor for European e-commerce and a major counterparty in the EU’s regulatory push for a unified payments framework under PSD3. The deal would also sharpen the strategic case for the European Central Bank’s digital euro project, which aims to reduce dependence on US-controlled payment networks.

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