How the €3 levy on non-European parcels will affect both businesses and consumers
By Shahab Wahdatehagh, Vice President, Global Trade Intelligence EMEA/AP at Descartes
On 1 July 2026, the European Union will introduce a new import charge on goods originating from outside the EU. Anyone ordering a parcel from, for example, a Chinese ecommerce platform can expect a surcharge of €3 as a temporary, simplified customs duty. The measure applies exclusively to non-European shipments valued below €150. More expensive orders are already subject to import duties. What will be the short- and long-term impact? And who will feel it most?
The new rule is primarily intended to protect European producers. At present, they must compete with companies importing low-cost goods from non-European regions. Because the threshold for paying import duties is set at €150, importers can take full advantage and offer products at very competitive prices. Some companies have also been creative in exploiting this exemption, splitting larger orders into smaller shipments to avoid duties above €150.
Europe aims to put an end to such practices. The rule will not only safeguard the EU market but also generate significant revenue for governments. In 2024, an average of 4,6 billion parcels enter Europe each year without import duties. Even if this volume declines, the additional charge will have a substantial impact – not only in the short term. By 2028, Europe aims to replace the current flat €3 customs duty with a more dynamic levy based on the actual value of imported goods.
However, it may not stop at this import charge: last year, the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union reached an agreement on the introduction of a handling fee. Although the amount has not yet been determined, this will add another charge to parcels sent directly from outside the EU to consumers once it is adopted and enacted in law. For non-EU parcels shipped to distribution hubs and warehouses, the fee is expected to be lower. This measure is anticipated to come into effect late 2026.
Who will feel the impact most?
Who are the winners and losers of these new levies? For the European economy, it may be positive that the EU is no longer incentivising imports from outside markets. On the one hand, this presents a unique opportunity for European companies to strengthen their competitiveness. On the other hand, non-European players may start adjusting their distribution model by establishing direct operations within the EU, if they have not already done so. This, too, could be beneficial, as it may create jobs and generate revenue within Europe. Another winner may be the environment, as many non-European small parcel shipments are transported by air and therefore carry a significant carbon footprint.
In the short term, consumers are likely to feel the impact the most. Products that are currently inexpensive to order may become more expensive. This affects particularly items that benefit from the currently existing favourable import regulations, such as clothing, fashion, and basic electronics. For some products, availability may also temporarily decline. It remains to be seen whether European producers will be able to respond adequately. Despite the regulations having been announced some time ago, little progress has been made in terms of capacity and logistics networks within the EU. Other stakeholders facing challenges include exporters who stick to their operational model and do not adjust to the new customs reality.
Transport companies and freight forwarders will also feel the effects of the measure. Even if shipping volumes decline drastically immediately after 1 July, they will still have to manage customs declarations for around one billion parcels almost overnight, leading to increased workload and complexity.
As extreme as in the US?
For now, the full consequences of the rule remain uncertain. However, the United States offers a useful point of comparison, having already introduced similar import tariffs last year. Since then, the number of non-American low value parcels has dropped by 80%, with only a small proportion recovering. The figures in Europe may be somewhat less extreme. While the EU exception applied to imports with a declared value under €150, in the US this threshold was set at US$800. As a result, a much larger share of goods in the US has been affected by the new rule.
Given the smaller price difference, it is also possible that European consumers will simply absorb the €3 surcharge, or that exporters will largely bear the cost themselves. The geopolitical context also differs somewhat between the US and the EU. Nevertheless, a significant decline in non-European shipments can be expected within the EU, if only because some courier companies may refuse small parcels rather than take on the additional operational burden of customs declarations.
An opportunity for businesses and consumers
In any case, this represents a unique opportunity to reassess processes and habits. If the price gap with cheaper non-European goods narrows, EU-based companies will have greater scope to differentiate themselves in other ways, for example through sustainable practices or more efficient shipping by consolidating orders. Accurately forecasting demand and determining optimal stock levels will become increasingly important, and technology is already well equipped to support these challenges.
Overall, the new import rules are likely to accelerate changes across ecommerce and logistics supply chains. Businesses importing goods into the EU will need to reassess their operational models, while transport and customs processes may become significantly more complex. At the same time, European companies could find new opportunities to compete more effectively if price differences with non-European goods narrow. Much will depend on how quickly businesses, logistics providers and consumers adapt to the new reality once the measures come into effect.
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