Charging ahead: Why the next European electric wave will run on 18 wheels
Europe’s decarbonisation journey is often told through the lens of renewable generation, smart grids and electric passenger cars. Yet one of the biggest and least transformed sectors is only now shifting gears: heavy-duty road freight. Trucks are the backbone of European logistics and the arteries of modern trade. They are also among the hardest segments to decarbonise. But this is changing fast, and with it emerges what could become Europe’s next trillion-dollar market opportunity.
Heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) account for more than a quarter of all road transport emissions in the EU and over 6% of total greenhouse gas emissions. Despite this, only around 1.2% of newly registered HDVs in 2024 were fully electric across the EU-27. The gap between ambition and adoption is striking, and it signals one of the most untapped opportunities of the decade.
Across Europe, roughly 6 million trucks of 3.5 tonnes and over are on the road today, representing more than two terawatt-hours of potential mobile battery capacity. To put that in perspective: the Iberian power outage in 2025 was triggered by the sudden loss of just 2.2 gigawatts, about a thousandth of that capacity, causing cascading voltage failures that brought down the entire Spanish and Portuguese grid within seconds. Even partial electrification of this fleet has the power to reshape the energy and transport system, unlocking operational flexibility and supporting decarbonisation without requiring unrealistic grid-scale interventions.
Building the backbone: Depot-centric charging
For electric trucks to scale, charging infrastructure will not necessarily need megawatt corridors across Europe. Instead, the transition is likely to be dominated by private depot charging, where fleets can recharge with 200–400 kW chargers, technology that is already proven, cost-effective, and easy to integrate with existing grid connections. Larger megawatt charging points will exist, but their utilisation may be limited due to high costs and slower deployment timelines.
This depot-centric model allows companies to co-locate solar PV and battery storage, creating self-sufficient charging hubs that minimise electricity costs and maximise asset utilisation. Over time, depots can gradually open up to third-party fleets, improving utilisation and creating new business models for shared energy infrastructure. It is ultimately the software layer, optimising routes, energy flows, and TCO (total cost of ownership), that will accelerate eTruck adoption, not faster or larger chargers alone.
Europe’s logistics ecosystem offers a structural advantage here. Most trucking companies own their vehicles and employ drivers directly, enabling coordinated fleet transitions and centralised charging management (ACEA). By contrast, fragmented ownership models in other markets make rapid electrification more difficult. Europe’s vertical integration provides a unique platform for scaling depot-based charging efficiently and economically.
Trucks as flexible assets
A single 40-tonne electric truck carries a battery of several hundred kilowatt-hours. While vehicle-to-grid integration may eventually provide additional revenue streams, real-world adoption is limited as trucks are most valuable on the road rather than idle. The immediate economic driver for fleet operators is the total cost of ownership: comparing electric trucks with diesel, factoring in fuel savings, maintenance, toll exemptions, and regulatory incentives. Recent policy extensions, such as the continuation of eTruck toll reductions in Germany, further strengthen the business case.
Electrifying freight is also accelerating battery and software innovation. Advances in high-density battery chemistry, thermal management, depot energy management, and fleet optimisation software are enabling smoother transitions and improving operational efficiency. According to Mordor Intelligence, the European electric truck market is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of over 30% through 2030. Each truck on the road represents not just a cleaner vehicle but a node in a flexible, digital, and monetisable logistics network.
A European structural advantage
Europe’s traditional industrial strength in commercial vehicles, its cohesive regulatory environment and its early leadership in grid digitisation create a favourable foundation for transformation. The European model, with vertically integrated fleet ownership and public policy alignment, allows the design of holistic systems where trucks, depots, chargers and the grid are treated as parts of a single ecosystem.
The US, by contrast, will likely require an entirely different approach based on decentralised service providers, franchise models and financial incentives to align fragmented players. In this race, Europe has the advantage of coordination.
What this means for founders and investors
Success in heavy freight electrification requires a systems mindset. Trucks, batteries and charging infrastructure are interconnected components of a broader energy and logistics ecosystem. Founders who align data, energy flows and fleet operations will create scalable businesses that evolve alongside grid intelligence and renewable integration.
The real opportunity lies in digital platforms rather than just hardware. Predictive maintenance, energy-as-a-service and grid-responsive charging enable recurring revenue and create defensibility in a sector traditionally dominated by physical assets. Partnerships are critical: lasting collaborations with fleet operators, utilities and grid stakeholders across markets will determine who scales and who stays in demonstration mode.
For investors, this transition is as much an energy and industrial opportunity as it is a transport shift. Depot electrification, integrated PV and battery systems, and software-enabled operations represent infrastructure with asset-backed returns. Policy acts as a catalyst, providing visibility and demand signals for the next decade.
If Europe continues to align policy, infrastructure investment and private capital, it can become the global leader in heavy-duty electrification. Truck manufacturers, charging providers, battery startups and utilities all stand to gain from a new industrial renaissance built on clean mobility and intelligent energy integration.
The electrification of heavy road freight is not merely about replacing diesel engines with batteries. It is about turning Europe’s logistics network into a flexible, digital and climate-aligned infrastructure backbone. The next trillion-dollar opportunity will roll quietly across the continent, on 18 wheels, carrying not only goods but the blueprint for a cleaner and smarter industrial economy.
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