World Cup Qualifying: Which European Nations Find Themselves in Real Danger of Missing Out?
The second international break of the 2025/26 season has come and gone, and Europe finally has its first, and at this point only, confirmed qualifier for next summer’s 2026 FIFA World Cup. While South American heavyweights Argentina and Brazil, as well as Asian debutants Uzbekistan and Jordan, have already secured their spots in the North American showpiece, the UEFA confederation was without a confirmed qualifier heading into the final round of fixtures. That has now changed.
Back-to-back beaten European Championship finalists England are the first European team to have confirmed their participation at the World Cup, with new manager Thomas Tuchel leading the Three Lions through a blistering qualifying campaign. Six games played, six games won, 18 goals scored, zero conceded. A thumping 5-0 win in Latvia was enough to secure qualification, with Harry Kane, Anthony Gordon, and Eberechi Eze all on song in Riga. However, online gambling sites think that this is just the beginning.
The latest online gambling at Bovada odds currently list Captain Kane and Co. as a 13/2 second favorite to leave MetLife Stadium next July with the trophy for just the second time in history. But while England has been thriving, some of the continent’s more familiar names have been struggling. Here are three teams that are in very real danger of missing out altogether on the 2026 World Cup.
Sweden
The ongoing qualifying campaign was meant to be a coming-out party for Sweden. The Scandinavian nation has arguably the most feared pair of strikers on the planet in the form of Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, but neither of them has managed to fire home regularly.
After picking up just one point in their opening two qualifiers, the Swedes headed into the last home double header knowing the pressure was on. Unfortunately for them, things couldn’t have gone much worse. The Blågult were first stunned by Switzerland in Stockholm, with second-half strikes from Granit Xhaka and Johan Manzambi securing the Swiss a 2-0 win and top spot in Group B. Days later, unheralded Kosovo rocked up to Gothenburg and also emerged victorious, winning 1-0 courtesy of Hoffenheim striker Fisnik Asllani’s well-taken first-half goal.
Now, Sweden’s hopes of automatic qualification are already over. However, the Swedes do have an ace up their sleeve in the form of a guaranteed playoff spot courtesy of their performances in the UEFA Nations League. With the alarm bells ringing loud and clear, manager Jon Dahl Tomasson was sacked, with the Swedish FA knowing full well that vast improvements are required if their team is to make it to the grandest stage for just the third time since 2006.
Wales
Wales headed into the current qualifying campaign riding the crest of a wave, having reached the World Cup for the first time in 60 years back in 2022. That particular foray back onto the global stage would end disastrously, bowing out at the first hurdle following a shock loss to Iran and a drubbing by rivals England. However, new manager Craig Bellamy has blooded a new crop of exciting young talent in a bid to return to the global stage.
With the likes of Brennan Johnson and Harry Wilson leading the way, the Red Dragons made a lively start to qualifying life, beating Kazakhstan home and away before ultimately losing a seven-goal thriller against Belgium in a spirited display. Unfortunately, however, a loss at home to the Red Devils in the reverse fixture of that 4-3 defeat leaves them teetering on the brink.
A Kevin De Bruyne double, coupled with goals from Thomas Meunier and Leandro Trossard, secured the visitors a 4-2 victory in Cardiff, and now Wales have their work cut out if they are to qualify. They will need to beat Liechtenstein and then undefeated North Macedonia, all while vastly improving their goal difference, if they are to usurp the Macedonians and progress.
Italy
Four-time champions Italy endured a miserable start to qualifying, suffering a 3-0 drubbing away at Norway in their opening game and handing the Scandinavians the initiative in Group I. It’s an advantage that Erling Haaland and Co. haven’t yet surrendered, winning all six of their games thus far to put themselves on the brink of returning to the FIFA World Cup after 28 long years.
The Azzurri, meanwhile, have plenty of work still to do. While they have managed to rally under new manager Gennaro Gatusso, winning all four of their games with the former midfield dynamo at the helm, they remain three points behind the Norwegians, who in turn also have a better goal difference than the Italians. The two teams meet in the final matchday at the San Siro, and Italy will need to win to have any hope of securing a direct route to next summer’s World Cup.
Failing that, the Azzurri will have to settle for a third straight trip to the playoffs, and considering how badly the last two visits have gone, it’s a journey that no Italian will fancy. In qualifying for Russia 2018, Italy were upset by Sweden across two legs. Four years later, they were stunned by lowly North Macedonia in Palermo. Now, they will be hoping that the third time is indeed the charm.
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