US Drought, EU Surplus Halved and Exports in Sharp Decline
BRUSSELS – The uncertainty over tariffs is reflected in the numbers of transatlantic trade: in June, European exports to the United States saw a sharp slowdown, while imports from America increased significantly, according to Eurostat data. Meanwhile, the joint statement that should formalize the tariff agreement reached at the end of July by Ursula von der Leyen and Donald Trump remains pending, with the cut in car tariffs still stalled.
In detail, in June 2025, the EU surplus with the rest of the world decreased to 8 billion euros, down from 20.3 billion a year earlier. With the United States, the main partner of the bloc, the surplus halved: from 18.5 to 9.6 billion euros in twelve months. According to Eurostat, EU exports to the US fell by 10.3% to 40.2 billion, while American imports into Europe increased by 16.4% to 30.6 billion. A double effect, therefore, that erodes the trade advantage of
Brussels.
The decline is concentrated in the sectors most exposed to the trade war. The positive balance for machinery and vehicles decreased from 21.3 to 16.4 billion euros. The chemical sector also lost ground, dropping from a surplus of 19.1 to 14.3 billion. ‘Other manufactured goods’ recorded a real reversal: from a surplus of 1.9 billion to a deficit of 1.4 billion. These are the same sectors affected by US tariffs. The data is even more evident in seasonally adjusted flows: in June, EU exports to third countries fell by 2.3% compared to May, while imports grew by 2.9%, causing the balance to collapse from 12.7 to 1.8 billion. A sign that tariff uncertainty is already impacting logistics chains.
According to the Financial Times, the EU–US joint statement, which should formalize the tariff agreement, remains postponed due to disagreements over the language related to “non-tariff barriers”: Washington wants leeway on European digital rules – particularly the Digital Services Act – while for Brussels there would be a non-negotiable limit. Without the agreement, the cut in car tariffs from the current 27.5% to 15%, promised by the White House, will not take effect. Meanwhile, the fate of tariffs on wine and spirits is still unclear. (August 18)
