Two Cinderella stories but only one slipper

Lauri Markkanen’s legend with Finland grew on Saturday as the Susijengi downed Serbia. Less than a day later, Georgia made history of their own as Toko Shengelia and Sandro Mamukelashvili combined to stun France. Someone will make their first semi-final ever at EuroBasket 2025. The alternative is the clock striking midnight.

Well isn’t this just marvellous. Finland looked doomed to an early exit after a so-so showing in the group phase. Then Lauri Markkanen, with some help from Slim Jesus Miikka Muurinen and Mikael Jantunen, shocked pre-tournament favourites Serbia.

Just when they thought it would be France meeting them, Georgia said not so fast. Toko Shengelia turned back the clock while Sandro Mamukelashvili made a big sacrifice to bring them to their first ever major quarter final. Two Cinderellas are vying for one spot in the medal rounds.

Key details

What: Finland vs Georgia, EuroBasket 2025 quarter final
Where: Xiaomi Arena, Riga, Latvia
When: 10 September 2025 at 17.00 (local), 15.00 (Ireland/UK), 10.00 (EST)
Odds: ML Finland 1/2 Georgia 37/19. Spread Finland -5.5

Finland found themselves

The Susijengi had an enormous problem coming out of the group phase. Their interior D was just too easy to penetrate. There was one slight tactical tweak and a whole lot of gumption that improved matters. Mikael Jantunen directed from the inside with Lauri Markkanen following rather than the reverse. It was subtle but enormous as it helped to cover up Sasu Salin’s issues on the perimeter and activate their more agile players.

Then, of course, there was the impact of Miikka Muurinen. He is only playing 10.3 minutes per game but he’s an added energy boost that substantially aids the Susijengi. Add in Elias Valtonen stepping up late and the recipe was a team that believed in itself.

Georgia hopes Finland is riding that high. Toko Shengelia, Sandro Mamukelashvili, and a remarkably disciplined supporting cast want to be overlooked. They know the emotional toll Finland’s win took because they experienced it themselves against France. The Susijengi can’t afford to slip now.

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Playing with house money

Georgia and Finland know each other well from qualifying campaigns. They also both understand that the other is delighted with their EuroBasket 2025 quarter final opponent. The draw is as favourable as either could have asked for but now one of them isn’t getting the fairytale ending.

For Toko Shengelia, he’s got to find a scoring performance close to the level of volume and efficiency that he delivered against France. With Sandro Mamukelashvili, I expect a slightly more dynamic display. He’ll still prioritise D but the nature of Finland’s offensive game means he’ll likely need to do more work at the other end as well.

Match-up wise, Mikael Jantunen is the smarter play on Toko Shengelia for Finland. If they can force Sandro Mamukelashvili against Lauri Markkanen, they can make it harder for the Georgia guards to find space.

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Prediction time

We’ve got two teams here that are built to fight, likely to stumble, and capable of picking themselves back up again. I expect runs, comebacks, some quiet phases, and then a furious fourth quarter. Essentially, it will be an old-school EuroBasket game.

Much as Georgia look capable of tactically adjusting their way into a win, I can’t get over the match-ups. The men from the Caucasus were honestly better suited to beat France than they were Finland. This will be a far less plodding opponent.

In Lauri Markkannen, Finland have a megastar. In Miikka Muurinen, they have a rising star. Around them are 10 men that have found the extra level required for the knockout stages. They will be the ones that keep dancing until Friday at least.
Pick: Finland to win and cover -5.5 points.

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