Split EU will likely have to go to the UN with a temporary climate goal

Last week, the Danish EU presidency had to give up hope of finalizing the EU’s 2040 climate target this week.

Now, the EU will likely also have to give up on delivering a solid 2035 climate target to the UN.

This became clear after a meeting of the ambassadors of the EU countries.

Here, the Danish EU presidency instead received support to try to reach a declaration of intent at Thursday’s meeting in Brussels for the EU countries’ environment ministers.

The declaration of intent should describe what the EU hopes to agree on regarding the 2035 target.

This is stated by the Danish EU presidency in a written comment.

“In general, the Danish presidency received broad support for our approach to prepare a declaration of intent for Thursday’s meeting in the Environment Council. This approach will ensure that the EU does not arrive at the UN climate conference with empty hands,” writes the Danish EU presidency.

Denmark had originally hoped to reach an agreement on the EU’s own 2040 climate target at the ministerial meeting on Thursday.

After that, the hope was that the EU countries could derive an ambitious 2035 climate target from the 2040 target and deliver it to the UN.

A solid 2035 target would give the EU the best leverage to pressure countries from other parts of the world to deliver reductions in greenhouse gas emissions at COP30 in Brazil in November.

The EU’s two most populous countries, Germany and France, however, stood firm against the 2040 climate target at a meeting last week supported by industry-heavy countries like Italy, Poland, and the Czech Republic.

This exposed the increasing skepticism of the EU countries towards high climate targets. In reality, Denmark is now in a smaller group of EU countries consisting of, among others, the Nordic countries and Spain, which genuinely support rapid climate action.

A number of other EU countries – including Germany and France – have begun to waver in the shadow of a weakened domestic economy marked by high energy prices.

Due to the opposition from especially Germany and France, the 2040 climate target will now instead be discussed at an upcoming EU summit.

The EU Commission has proposed that the 2040 climate target should aim for a 90 percent reduction in greenhouse gases compared to the 1990 level.

This is set too high, according to countries like Hungary, while other countries are pushing for flexibility in reaching the target.

At Thursday’s ministerial meeting, Denmark is expected to work to ensure that there remains a connection between the EU Commission’s proposal for a 90 percent reduction by 2040 and the declaration of intent regarding the 2035 target that the countries will try to reach an agreement on.

The question then becomes whether the EU countries will play along at Thursday’s meeting:

“We are aware that there are different views on the exact content and balance of the declaration of intent, and we are conscious that there is a need for consensus on this issue at Thursday’s meeting,” states a written comment from the Danish EU presidency.

In 2023, the EU accounted for six percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. This is a decrease from 15.2 percent in 1990. The EU has a goal of becoming climate neutral by 2050.

The largest emitters today are the USA, China, and India.