Reset or reload: Crvena Zvezda at the Euroleague crossroads

With their exit to FC Bayern in the play-in round of Euroleague, Crvena Zvezda’s season in basketball’s big show has come to an end. Emmet Ryan on the complex challenge ahead for the Belgrade club.

It was a game where neither side seemed capable of maintaining composure when in front. In the end, it was Crvena Zvezda who left themselves with too much to do. FC Bayern survive to face Real Madrid. The Red side of Belgrade basketball has some thinking to do.

A balanced campaign

This, right here, is why the challenge is complex. Crvena Zvezda finished 10th in the regular season of Euroleague, ensuring the toughest possible route in the postseason. Even if they had beaten FC Bayern on Tuesday, they’d have then needed to win in Madrid just to earn a series against Olympiacos.

Yet they pulled off a winning record and a positive score differential. The latter may not seem that important in basketball but it’s usually a strong indicator in Euroleague. Broadly speaking, a side underachieving with a positive differential tends to be well-placed for the knockout rounds. Whereas one that overachieves with a negative differential tends to get found out quickly.

Of course, that’s what tends to happen. What actually happened in the SAP Garden was that Crvena Zvezda (+62 on the season) lost to a FC Bayern side (-19 on the season) that had built a strong identity around home-court play.

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There’s strength in stability

Change is bound to come to Belgrade this off-season. Milos Teodosic must surely be considering calling time at this stage. Even still, Yago dos Santos will be the only one of the four remaining key backcourt pieces under 30 years of age come the start of next season. One would imagine that Crvena Zvezda will try to get a bit younger in this department. Codi Miller-McIntryre will be 31 while both Nemanja Nedovic and Isaiah Canaan will be 34.

Things get far more interesting elsewhere on the floor. At 33, Nikola Kalinic looks revitalised in red and should still be an anchor piece for the next two seasons. Him aside, Zvezda were really judicious with their minutes for the campaign in the front court. That makes even the older players on that side of the roster far fresher than is normal even for a basketball team with double their budget in Euroleague.

There does however appear to be room for one more big piece to be added up front. John Brown had something of an audition for that role this season, in much the same way he’d have surely viewed the Belgrade club as auditioning itself for him. This is, of course, ignoring the most important question.

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Can they possibly keep Filip Petrusev?

The loan by Olympiacos of Filip Petrusev to Crvena Zvezda this season made lots of sense. The Serbian wasn’t getting featured prominently for the Greek club and, with the NBA door still somewhat open, he knew that he needed to go somewhere he could contribute.

That he most certainly did and it’s quite safe to say that the 25 year old played some of his best basketball at the business end of the Euroleague season. That it wasn’t enough to get a higher seed is unfortunate. Still, keeping Petrusev is undoubtedly the top target for Zvezda. There’s already a good relationship between the two clubs and Oly retain most of their current frontcourt this off-season, making a deal makes sense for them.

If Zvezda do that then they have a spine of sorts to build around. Begin the thought process with Dos Santos, Kalinic, and Petrusev. Then add the other very nice pieces already there, especially Miller-McIntrye, and work out what can be added.

Fiscal reality

Budgets are only going one way in Euroleague. The question for Crvena Zvezda, and their city rivals of Partizan, is can they keep up. The extended deal offered to them by Euroleague is ghastly. The two clubs would need to pay a large sum to extend their collective stay while receiving none of the media rights money.

That’s hardly going to fill the coffers of either. Still, they have been able to build a foundation which could allow them to potentially add one more big piece to the mix, along with some supporting ones. Ioannis Sfairopoulos will be patient with the front office but also stern enough. He won’t demand a splashy move but he will want to see effective ones.

The key thing for Zvezda is to not think like a club with a far greater budget. If that is the line of thinking in signings, they will lose. It’s an unfair battleground. The Red side of Belgrade needs to identify value moves it can make to put it in a position to go from 18 wins to 19 or 20 in a year’s time. That doesn’t mean a drop to 15 or a jump to 21 won’t happen but focusing on what can be controlled is the important piece.

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