Prediction market traders give Mamdani 84% chance of winning New York mayoral race

Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi now place the odds of Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani winning the New York mayoral race at 84%, after Mayor Eric Adams ended his re-election campaign on Sunday, just five weeks before Election Day.

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an Independent, follows as the next most likely contender, with Kalshi bettors assigning him a 16% chance of clinching the city’s top office.

Meanwhile, Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa trails at 2%.

The trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, sits just north of $28 million. 

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Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist upstart, has placed affordability at the center of his campaign to lead America’s largest city. He has campaigned on free buses, city-owned grocery stores and rent freezes for tenants in rent-stabilized apartments. 

Adams announced his decision to exit the mayoral race in a nearly nine-minute video posted on social media. 

"It’s been an honor to be your mayor," Adams said in his announcement, as he highlighted what he described as achievements related to crime reduction, housing affordability and economic recovery during his time in office.

ERIC ADAMS DROPS OUT OF NYC MAYORAL RACE AS MAMDANI GAINS GROUND

"And yet despite all that we have achieved, I cannot continue my re-election campaign," he said, adding that he was unable to raise the funds for a "serious campaign."

 He offered no clues about his plans after leaving office and did not endorse any of the remaining candidates. 

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The move capped weeks of speculation over his withdrawal to benefit Cuomo, even as Mamdani has maintained a commanding lead.