Bruegel: American tariffs imposed on the EU could last for up to 20 years
American tariffs imposed on the EU could last for up to 20 years, and although they are economically harmful, they are politically attractive, do not require tax increases, and therefore could be maintained by Democratic administrations as well – according to an analysis by the Bruegel think tank.
According to most experts, tariffs could last from 7 to 20 years, which is a pessimistic scenario. Proponents of this concept argue that although tariffs are economically harmful, they remain politically attractive. Even the Democratic administration, as pessimists point out, is not inclined to abolish them, as evidenced by President Joe Biden’s failure to revoke the earlier, lower tariffs imposed during Donald Trump’s first term.
They believe that the abolition of tariffs could only come with a global reform of the trading system under the World Trade Organization, which seems unlikely in the current situation.
Additionally, tariffs generate budget revenues without the need for formal tax increases, making them an attractive tool for power in a highly polarized political environment in the USA. Their negative economic effects – higher inflation or slower economic growth – may be difficult for the public to grasp and do not constitute a priority for voters, which strengthens their political durability.
On the other hand, optimists predict that tariffs may last shorter – from two to five years. They point out that tariffs are economically inefficient and increase the risk of stagflation in the USA, among other things, by slowing GDP growth by 0.5 percent in 2025-2026 and keeping inflation above the Federal Reserve’s target. Additionally, the historical context of the high tariffs imposed by Trump indicates their nature as a politically motivated event.
Supporters of a shorter duration of tariffs also emphasize that the revenue from tariffs, estimated by the US administration at about $300 billion this year, constitutes only 0.7 percent of GDP, meaning that their potential loss could be compensated by other means. Moreover, the negative effects of tariffs are felt by consumers and businesses, which in a democracy limits the possibility of their long-term maintenance. The abolition of tariffs could also serve as a way for Democrats to clearly distinguish themselves from the policies of the previous administration.
Experts also emphasize that after months of uncertainty regarding the Trump administration’s decisions on tariffs on imports from abroad, the situation in international trade has relatively stabilized. In most cases, imports from the European Union have been subject to a customs tariff of up to 15 percent, and the main debate has shifted from the question of how to avoid or reduce tariffs to how long they will last. (27.08.2025)
